Did moving your TSP money help or hurt?
Enter your starting balance and every interfund transfer you made. We replay them on official TSP share prices, apply the real transfer rules, and compare you to simply staying put.
Limits of this calculator
- It models one balance and the transfers you enter. It ignores new contributions, loans and withdrawals, so your real dollar numbers will differ. The comparison (same money, same dates, moved vs. stayed) is what matters.
- Transfer rules follow 5 CFR 1601.32 as checked November 2026: 2 unrestricted transfers per calendar month, then moves into the G Fund only until the 1st.
- Prices are official TSP daily share prices (net of fund expenses) from May 2003 to the latest update shown in the results.
- This is history, not a forecast or a recommendation. It doesn't tell you what to do with your account.
What moving to the G Fund in a panic has cost
Every C Fund drop of 15% or more since 2003. Each case starts with $100,000 in the C Fund at the market's peak, moves everything to G when the C Fund is down 15% (or 25%), then comes back by one of several rules. Results are measured 2 years after the peak.
Read this before drawing conclusions
- Only 5 drops, and only one (2008) was a deep, long crash. Five cases show a pattern, not a law.
- In 2008 the 2-year window ended while stocks were still far below their old high, which flatters every "get out" rule. A longer window would show less of an advantage.
- The 2025 case is measured to November 2026, the latest data, not a full 2 years.
- Moves are executed at the next day's closing price after the signal, following TSP's noon rule. No transfer limits were hit in these cases.
- Past drops don't predict the next one. This page doesn't recommend any action.
Timing service scoreboard
TSP timing newsletters charge from about $15 a month to over $1,000 a year. Most publish their own results, usually as simple averages, without the transfer limits, without the subscription cost, and against weak benchmarks. We're building an independent scoreboard that grades every service the same way.
How each service will be graded
- Every published signal, timestamped, executed at the first closing price a subscriber could actually get under the noon rule.
- The transfer limit enforced: a third non-G move in a month is skipped, just as TSP would reject it.
- Three benchmarks: the matching L Fund, the C Fund held the whole time, and a fixed mix with similar risk.
- Compounded returns (not simple averages), worst drop, recovery time, time spent in G, and rolling 3-year results.
- The subscription cost counted as a drag (for example, $295 a year on a $100,000 balance is 0.3% a year).
- Backtested results kept separate from live results, and any rule changed after the fact flagged.
- Each service gets the results and 7 days to respond before anything is published.
Status: method published; first grades in progress. Want a service graded? Nominations open soon.
How we work
Who we are
An independent project from a Navy family that tests claims with data. We take no money from timing services, brokers or advisors, and we don't sell your information.
What we publish
Impersonal research on a regular schedule: the same analysis for everyone, about TSP history and published claims. We never tell any individual how to allocate their account, and we don't send buy or sell signals.
Where the numbers come from
Official TSP daily share prices published at tsp.gov (public data). TSP and Thrift Savings Plan are names of the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board; this site is not affiliated with or endorsed by FRTIB.
What this isn't
Not investment, tax or legal advice. Past results don't guarantee future results. For help with your own account, contact the TSP or a fiduciary financial planner (service members can use free Military OneSource financial counseling).